Over Five Million Coherent Transceivers to Ship in Five Years
REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – November 5, 2024 – Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, forecast coherent optical transceiver shipments to grow at a double-digit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years, surpassing well over five million in cumulative shipments. Additionally, vendors’ advancements in smaller, energy-efficient coherent transceivers are rapidly broadening their platform compatibility and application diversity. We currently project that, over the next five years, nearly half of the coherent transceivers will ship on routers and Ethernet switches.
“The move to pluggable coherent transceivers is occurring at a rapid pace,” stated Jimmy Yu, Vice President for Optical Transport market research at Dell’Oro Group. “This movement accelerated with the wide availability of ZR/ZR+ optics and, more importantly, the adoption of an IPoDWDM architecture,” added Yu.
“Today’s largest AI clusters built by hyperscalers, are already approaching 100 thousand accelerators, with projections reaching up to one million in the near future,” stated Sameh Boujelbene, Vice President for Ethernet Switch market research at Dell’Oro Group. “Due to the limited power capacity in each data center—and the high-power consumption of these accelerators—AI clusters are increasingly distributed across multiple data centers. This shift heightens the importance of Data Center Interconnect technologies that connect these data centers efficiently,” added Boujelbene.
Additional highlights from the Coherent Optics Report:
- We have significantly raised our optical transceiver shipment forecast to reflect faster than expected adoption of ZR pluggable optics and increased demand on hyperscalers backbone bandwidth propelled by large AI clusters.
- We raised the forecast for 1600ZR and lowered that of 800ZR, reflecting rising demand for higher data center speeds to support AI/ML compute clusters.
- Coherent optics deployed on Router & Switch platforms will account for more than 50 percent of the annual increase in transceiver shipments throughout the forecast period. By 2028, we expect them to constitute more than 45 percent of the total transceiver volume.
- Demand for ZR+ optics is on the rise with the introduction of higher transmit-powered transceivers. We forecast that ZR+ optic shipments will grow at a five-year CAGR of 70 percent.
Dell’Oro Group’s Coherent Optics Advanced Research Report includes 5-year market forecasts for the entire use of coherent optics, accounting for optical plugs and embedded modules (by speed up to 1.6 Tbps) on a worldwide basis. For more information about the report, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com.
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, and data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit https://www.delloro.com.
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