5-Year Forecast: Broadband Spending to Remain Strong Through 2025
Global spending on broadband access equipment and CPE is expected to drop only 2% in 2020, a significant improvement from our July 2020 forecast, which anticipated spending dropping by 7% in 2020. The combination of significant residential subscriber growth and increased capacity utilization rates noted by global broadband providers nearly offset the negative impacts of trade tussles, component shortages, and labor limitations
5-Year Forecast: Demand for Optical Transport Equipment Rising
Dell’Oro Group published an update to the Optical Transport Five-Year Forecast report in January 2021. Learn more
5-Year Forecast: Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul Transport Growth Projected
Dell’Oro Group published an update to the Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul Transport Five-Year Forecast report in January 2021. Here are some key takeaways from the report… read more
5-Year Forecast: Radio Access Network Market to Grow Over the Near-Term
With the overall RAN market now growing at the fastest pace in nearly ten years and on track to approach revenue levels not seen since the Chinese operators rolled out 3G, one of the fundamental questions is simply whether there is more room to grow with this elevated baseline, keeping in mind the historically tight coupling between RAN revenue and wireless capital intensity. And if so—where will this growth come from?
Predictions 2021–Wireless LAN Market
At the beginning of 2020, we expected a solid year for the WLAN market, driven by a still humming economy and a technology upgrade cycle to Wi-Fi 6. After the pandemic hit, we revised our forecast down steeply (double digit decline)—similar to prior economic declines. As the year progressed, however, WLAN proved resilient and 2020 revenue is on track to come slightly lower than 2019—a remarkable result of government stimulus coming primarily from the US, followed by China and select countries in EMEA such as Germany. For example, the US’ E-Rate program, which provides telecommunications funding for K-12 schools, was opened to a second round in September 2020 to allow schools to request additional funds for 2020-21 to address surging bandwidth demand stemming from remote learning. In China, the government’s Made in China 2025 initiative has provided incentives for manufacturers to modernize their processes.
Predictions 2021 – Data Center Switch Market
For the full year of 2020, we now predict the market to decline only low-single-digit, compared to our prior forecast of mid-single-digit decline. We expect the Cloud segment to grow at a low single-digit rate, in line with our prior predictions. However, we adjusted our forecast for the non-Cloud segment from high single-digit to mid-single-digit decline, as the anticipated recovery in 2H2020 will offset some of the weakness in the first half of the year (The non-Cloud segment was down 8% Y/Y in 1H2020).
Predictions 2021—Service Provider Router Market
In the ensuing months, traffic growth moderated and even contracted in some cases. Nonetheless, IP networks are transporting more traffic than ever and are likely running at higher utilization levels compared to pre-pandemic times. We expect SPs to boost network capacity and reset their operational metrics for the new traffic levels and patterns—returning to pre-pandemic practices.
Predictions 2021 – Network Security Market
As we arrive at the end of 2020, it’s a good time to look at the forthcoming year. We assume that 2021 won’t surprise like this year, and we’ll be able to start returning to pre-pandemic routines. On a global scale, most things will return to the way they were, but some may not. The same is true for the network security market, where we predict two new trends and a return of a historical one:
Predictions 2021 – Campus Switch Market
Looking at 2021, we predict the positive momentum to continue and drive 2% growth in the market. This projected growth will be propelled by improvement in macro-economic conditions as recent GDP reports indicate that economists at world-leading banks are forecasting positive GDP growth in 2021, compared to negative growth in 2020. Additionally, the availability of a vaccine will help abate the uncertainty in the market and boost business confidence.
Predictions 2021 – Optical Transport Market
Every market and industry has a cycle. In fact, some industries are comprised of many different cycles that, in combination, result in changes to the amplitude and direction of market growth. Among the different cycles that influence the Optical Transport market, I think the best cycle to highlight for 2021 is the Product Cycle.
