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Charter’s proposed $34.5 billion acquisition of Cox Communications reflects just how much the US broadband landscape has changed. The near-nationwide availability of fixed wireless access (FWA), combined with expanding fiber footprints, has put cable operators on the defensive as they struggle with net broadband subscriber losses. Back in September 2024, I detailed the situation in a blog titled, “US Telcos Betting on Convergence and Scale to End Cable’s Broadband Reign”:

Going forward, the 1-2 punch of FWA and fiber will allow the largest telcos to have substantially larger broadband footprints than their cable competitors. Combine that with growing ISP relationships with open access providers and these telcos can expand their footprint and potential customer base further. And by expanding further, we don’t just mean total number of homes passed, but also businesses, enterprises, MDUs (multi-dwelling units), and data centers. Fiber footprint is as much about total route miles as it is about total passings. And those total route miles are, once again, increasing in value, after a prolonged slump.

For cable operators to successfully respond, consolidation likely has to be back on the table. The name of the game in the US right now is how to expand the addressable market of subscribers or risk being limited to existing geographic serving areas. Beyond that, continuing to focus on the aggressive bundling of converged services, which certainly has paid dividends in the form of new mobile subscribers.

Beyond that, being able to get to market quickly in new serving areas will be critical. In this time of frenzied buildouts and expansions, the importance of the first mover advantage can not be overstated.

So, maybe the specific combination of Charter and Cox was a surprise. But the notion that cable operators had to fight back by getting bigger was certainly not.

Network Upgrade Plans Likely to Stay the Same

Of course, there is no guarantee that this transaction will ultimately be approved. So, while the trade and legal reviews are getting underway, both operators still face competitors that are likely to accelerate their own marketing and sales initiatives designed to attract subscribers from the latest “corporate behemoth,” which only wants to stamp out competition and raise your broadband and mobile service prices. Charter and Cox, even though they have slightly different access network upgrade plans, will continue along their individual paths to raise speeds and improve signal quality across their HFC plant.

Fortunately, for both operators, the long-term vision of their access networks remains nearly aligned, though the timing might be slightly different. It’s worth a quick look at how Charter and Cox are both similar and different when it comes to their broadband access network strategies:

  • Charter and Cox are moving forward with Distributed Access Architectures (DAA) using vCMTS and Remote PHY Devices. Charter is in the early stages of their RPD deployments, while Cox has converted nearly all of its existing optical node base to Remote PHY. Cox had historically relied on Cisco for its M-CMTS (Modular CMTS) platforms, an early precursor to Remote PHY, and subsequently took the next evolutionary step of homing RPDs to the existing CCAP installed base. While that did allow the operator to move to Ethernet transport between the headend and RPDs, the benefits of moving to a vCMTS architecture weren’t fully realized, which is why Cox is now working with Vecima’s vCMTS platform.
  • Both Charter and Cox believe in using the Extended Spectrum flavor of DOCSIS 4.0, though Charter expects to deploy DOCSIS 4.0 earlier than Cox. This is because Cox is already running the vast majority of its network at 1 GHz with a mid-split architecture, while Charter is in the process of upgrading its usable spectrum from 750 MHz to 1.2 GHz (using 1.8 GHz amplifiers running at 1.2 GHz) using a high-split architecture. According to Charter CEO Chris Winfrey, “In terms of the network, Cox is largely through an upgrade for what we would call a mid-split upgrade…There’s no rush for us to go try to harmonize that into a high split footprint.” Winfrey also said, “In our planning, the eventual conversion to DOCSIS 4.0 with DAA doesn’t take place for years and it’ll be done at a lower cost as a result of them having already completed their mid-split and because of the scale that we’ll have at the time that we’re completing our own DOCSIS 4.0 and DAA upgrades.” In other words, Cox has a longer runway with its current mid-split, 1 GHz architecture delivering 2 Gbps downstream speeds. So, should the merger go through, the Cox systems would be delivering similar downstream speeds as the upgraded Charter systems, but would likely have reduced upstream capacity relative to the upgraded, high-split systems.
  • Charter is also a proponent of GAP (Generic Access Platform) nodes and has begun deploying these modular nodes in its network to replace aging and discontinued units. Cox, on the other hand, has made no mention of GAP nodes and likely doesn’t need to in the short-term, given that it spent a good deal of capex years ago to upgrade to 1 GHz. Even Charter isn’t deploying GAP nodes universally across its network, as it will continue to source GAP and non-GAP nodes from multiple vendors.
  • When it comes to vCMTS, Charter has hinted about having cores from multiple vendors, though to date it has only publicly announced Harmonic as its vCMTS supplier. Meanwhile, Cox just recently announced its selection of Vecima’s Entra vCMTS, which makes sense given the deployment of Vecima RPDs. But Vecima RPDs are also being deployed at Charter. So, does that mean that Vecima stands to win a share of Charter’s vCMTS business, as well? Although RPD and vCMTS interoperability is expected and is in deployment at other operators, Charter has made note of some interoperability challenges within its network. Thus, it utilizes Falcon V as a testbed for vCMTS and RPD interoperability, along with Vecima’s acquisition of Falcon V.
  • When it comes to fiber deployments, Charter and Cox have different technology choices. Charter continues to use 10 Gbps DPoE (DOCSIS Provisioning over EPON) for both its RDOF-funded projects and its Greenfield fiber builds. In contrast, Cox was an early adopter of both GPON and the newer XGS-PON technology. As a result, Cox has a significantly higher percentage of PON (Passive Optical Network) connections compared to Charter in terms of total homes and businesses served.

It goes without saying that there are many variables from a technology perspective surrounding this proposed transaction that are likely to have profound implications on the cable outside plant and headend vendor landscape. The combination of two of the largest cable operators in the world ultimately reduces the number of opportunities for unique vendors, thereby furthering consolidation among those vendors. Should this deal move forward, I fully expect there to be some consolidation among equipment vendors as they look to grow their share at the new combined company.

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Recent shifts in U.S. trade policy, including the implementation and adjustment of tariffs, have introduced uncertainty into global markets. Temporary rollbacks and exceptions—such as reduced rates and product-specific carve-outs—have added to the complexity, particularly in response to market reactions.

As of now, the effective average tariff rate on U.S. imports is estimated at 27%, the highest level since the early 20th century, reflecting broader efforts to recalibrate trade dynamics. Accordingly, a key question from clients remains: how will changing tariff policies affect broadband deployments and the demand for related equipment?

Given the frequent adjustments to trade policy—including recent exemptions for smartphones, consumer electronics, and certain GPUs—it remains challenging to forecast the full extent of the impact on broadband infrastructure in the near term.

What follows are our best estimates as to the impact tariffs will have this year and beyond on the broadband market:

1. In the US, tariffs will have minimal impact on most fiber broadband equipment pricing and deployments.

Key fiber broadband equipment providers in the U.S. have already moved most of their assembly and manufacturing to the U.S. in order to adhere to the BABA (Build America, Buy America) waiver of the NTIA’s BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment) program. Though not all of the products being deployed in broadband access networks have been onshored, the most commonly deployed components—PON OLTs, ONTs, cabinets, and fiber-optic cable—have already been self-certified by the respective vendors and have already seen substantial increases in domestic manufacturing.

Beyond BABA, some major operators have multi-year purchase agreements in place for fiber-optic cabling and connectors that should protect them from any impact of tariffs on the import of silica and other raw materials used in the manufacture of fiber cables. For example, in 2024, AT&T signed a $1 billion multi-year agreement with Corning to ensure a stable supply of fiber cable and connectivity solutions. Originally intended to safeguard against supply shortages, this move now also serves to mitigate the risk of rising component costs.

2. Unlike FTTH, cable outside plant upgrades in support of DOCSIS 4.0 are likely to be impacted.

Commscope, which manufactures amplifiers and outer outside plant components in Mexico, and Teleste, which manufactures amplifiers in Finland, will both be impacted by tariffs at any level. We suspect that these manufacturers are either looking to relocate these facilities or manufacturing to the US or are seeking waivers in order to satisfy growing demand from Comcast, Charter, Cox, and others. The relocation of manufacturing is no trivial task and will introduce shipment delays beyond the inventory both already have in their warehouses. The time it takes to move manufacturing is a primary argument for the more gradual introduction of tariffs as opposed to introduction and implementation on the same day.

Additionally, Vecima Networks, which is delivering GAP (Generic Access Platform) nodes to U.S. operators, has already signaled that tariffs will also be materially significant at any level. The net result for cable operators pursuing DOCSIS 4.0 is additional deployment delays as well as increased equipment prices.

3. Residential Wi-Fi routers will feel an impact.

Just as Wi-Fi vendors are looking to ride the wave of Wi-Fi 7 penetration into more homes and businesses, tariffs at any level will easily increase the retail cost of even the most popular Wi-Fi brands by anywhere from 5 to 15%. China, Taiwan, and Vietnam are the manufacturing sources for the vast majority of these devices and, although these devices have been exempted from the tariffs as of Friday night, the likelihood of those full exemptions remaining is very slim, in our opinion.

 4. Indirect impacts of tariffs and forecast adjustments.

The challenge for all industries now is that they simply cannot unsee what has already happened. The state of economic recovery in many countries and industries was already fragile after dealing with the supply shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, which introduced accelerated levels of inflation that were only exacerbated by government policies designed to stimulate economies. Those macroeconomic challenges were felt acutely in telecom equipment purchasing as service providers overbought capacity in 2022 and early 2023 and then had to focus on drawing down those inventories, putting pressure on their equipment vendors to sustain themselves during the spending slowdown. Just as these businesses are set to rebound and return to more normalized and consistent purchasing levels, tariffs are introduced, making the road to recovery cloudier.

In our January 2025 forecast, we had already reduced our expectations for North American broadband equipment spending from our July 2024 forecasts. These adjustments accounted for moderate tariff increase of 15-30% for imported electronics, semiconductors, and other components from China. However, the broader scope of tariffs, which now includes countries like Vietnam and India, exceeds our initial expectations.

However, the tariffs and their resulting costs passed on to end customers actually play only a small role in the forecast changes. The expectation that the BEAD program would come under review and delay the initiation of select fiber projects also played a role in our forecast reductions. Though we were expecting a very limited amount of BEAD funds to actually flow through to broadband equipment providers in 2025, we did expect to see some in the fourth quarter. Now, we highly doubt any money will be spent on OLTs or ONTs this year, instead pushing the spend well into 2026.

The bigger concern we had going into 2025 was the uncertainty among consumers and businesses alike about what impact the new administration’s policies would have on overall spending and investment patterns. After two years of steady inflation and higher interest rates, US consumer confidence was already trending downward. Consumer debt levels were rising and stubbornly high mortgage rates limited the number of new homes being purchased, as well as overall refinancing. With consumer spending in the US typically 68% of GDP, any further decline in confidence could result in consumers pulling back from spending.

And that is where the maelstrom around tariffs this past week has left consumers very concerned about what the immediate future holds for them. That uncertainty is likely to result in consumers either maintaining their current spend on broadband services or downgrading those services to save some money each month. The combination of consumers managing their communications budgets more tightly, fewer new home purchases, and less moves all means it will be incredibly difficult for broadband providers to continue to grow residential ARPU.

Lack of ARPU growth could result in some delays in planned upgrades from GPON to XGS-PON or from DOCSIS 3.1 to DOCSIS 4.0, for example. But it won’t stop the continued buildout of fiber networks in both greenfield and overbuild scenarios, because those are long-term investments with decades-long returns. Even if the cost to pass and connect homes increases due to tariff-induced price increases, the fiber strategies of major operators including AT&T, Frontier, Lumen, and others aren’t going to change.

Broadband and mobile bundling will undoubtedly accelerate this year as telco and cable operators try to lock in subscribers early with aggressive pricing and incentives on mobile services. Those moves will eat into ARPU growth, as well. But service providers will forgo some margins in the short-term in order to expand their subscriber base when the market volatility subsides.

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Late last week, Vecima Networks announced that it was acquiring Falcon V, a Polish developer of access network orchestration software designed to facilitate the deployment of vendor-agnostic DOCSIS, fiber, and wireless networks. The acquisition will help accelerate Vecima’s Entra vCMTS product development and help the company build closer ties to Charter as the cable operator continues its Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) network transformation. The deal also helps to soothe the sting of Vecima’s unsuccessful bid for the cable assets of Casa Systems, despite establishing itself as the stalking horse bid in the auction.

Falcon V, which originated in 2018 as a joint venture between Liberty Global and equipment supplier Vector Group, received an investment from Charter and Liberty Global in 2021 to focus on developing SDN and NFV solutions to allow for the deployment of open DAA systems. At the time of the investment, Charter was focused on deploying Remote MACPHY technology, as opposed to Comcast and other operators, who were moving forward with Remote PHY. Falcon V was said to be working on software that could accelerate vendor interoperability and help Charter move more quickly in the direction of Flexible MAC Architecture (FMA), which offered the operator far more flexibility in where it could locate the MAC (Media access control) function, be it in nodes, hub sites, headends, or centralized data centers.

But in October 2022, Charter changed direction and moved away from Remote MACPHY toward Remote PHY. That strategic shift left many wondering whether Falcon V would still have a role to play in Charter’s transition to DAA. In actuality, nothing changed much for the software supplier, as it was still focused on developing orchestration software as well as an interop testing suite designed to ensure Charter could have a truly open, vendor-agnostic DAA network.

In March 2023, Charter announced that it had selected Harmonic as a vCMTS and Remote PHY Device (RPD) technology supplier while also selecting Vecima as a supplier of its ERM 3 RPDs, which can be installed in its EN 9000 Generic Access Platform (GAP) nodes, all clearly indicating its commitment to a multi-vendor deployment. Vecima had already been selected as the lead supplier of Remote OLTs (R-OLTs) in Charter’s RDOF network buildouts and is presumably a lead supplier of these platforms in potential non-RDOF deployments, as well.

In September 2023, Vecima also announced it had entered into a warrant agreement with Charter, providing Charter the opportunity to purchase up to 361, 050 shares of Vecima stock through 2031 at a strike price of C$17.09 per warrant. That translates into an agreement of roughly US$4.5M and is dependent on Charter achieving certain spending targets.

So, even before the Falcon V acquisition, the relationship between Vecima and Charter was already strong. The addition of Falcon V and its employee base extends that relationship further into the realms of vCMTS, software orchestration, and DAA interop testing.

 

An Answer to Charter’s Interop Issues?

Back in February 2024, Charter’s Chris Winfrey announced that the start of phase two of its network transformation—the phase focused on RPD and vCMTS deployments—would be delayed from the beginning of the year to late 2024, at best. The culprit? DAA equipment certification delays due to greater-than-expected challenges with interop testing. Though Winfrey didn’t provide specifics on the delays, Charter’s multi-vendor strategy is already ambitious, especially when the company continues to build out RDOF properties with R-OLTs and is also trying to roll out new nodes and amplifiers.

Thus, Vecima’s acquisition of Falcon V could very well have been pushed by Charter as a way to reduce the number of discrete vendors it has to coordinate with as it goes through the interop and homologation process. Charter has already made financial commitments to both vendors, so why not advocate for a marriage to help potentially speed up the DAA rollout process? The double-edged sword of DAA network rollout delays and subscriber losses is beginning to weigh heavily on Charter’s investors. So, anything that its vendor partners can do to solve those issues will certainly be welcomed by the operator.

 

Accelerating Vecima’s vCMTS Development

Beyond tightening its relationship with Charter, the addition of Falcon V’s products, as well as its software development teams will certainly help bring Vecima’s Entra vCMTS platform to market more quickly so that it can compete with Harmonic and Commscope. Though the Falcon V acquisition doesn’t completely make up for missing out on acquiring Casa’s cable assets, including its Axyom vCMTS and vBNG platforms, it does help to add pieces to what is an incredibly complex platform.

Vecima needs to accelerate the time to market of its Entra platform, especially at a customer like Charter, which has said it wants to move forward with a multi-vendor core, not just a multi-vendor PHY layer. While the details of just what a multi-vendor core might look like and how it will benefit Charter with all of the many balls it already has in the air, it certainly represents an opportunity for Vecima to position itself with a major operator that has plans beyond just the upgrade of its HFC network.

Charter likely similarly views the vCMTS as Comcast: As an edge compute platform that will ultimately enable services beyond those in the DOCSIS realm. The first workload after vCMTS is vBNG to support FTTH services and then perhaps an AGF (Access Gateway Function) workload to deliver converged fixed and mobile services over the existing HFC plant. Beyond that, perhaps a truly converged fixed and mobile core.

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At last week’s SCTE TechExpo, Comcast announced that Rogers Communications, Canada’s largest cable operator, will be licensing Comcast’s broadband access network design. This includes DAA equipment, CPE, and other network monitoring and management elements. Now, Rogers syndicates Comcast’s broadband access architecture and components, in addition to the X1 video platform, which it has been licensing since January 2017.

This announcement was only a surprise in its timing, as rumors had been swirling for months, if not years, that Comcast would be syndicating its broadband network design and corresponding network elements to other cable operators. In fact, back in 2017, I wrote an article titled “Comcast’s Hands-on Approach to the Headend and Home,” where we speculated about Comcast moving in this direction. This was largely because it had already gained experience by syndicating its X1 video platform and aimed to “streamline the lengthy cycle of product definition, development, testing, homologation, and deployment. Comcast has signaled its intention to define the future access network in conjunction with its technology suppliers. Through the development of an RDK-like operating system designed to provide a standard reference point for the creation, provisioning, and management of broadband traffic and services.”

 

Virtualizing the Broadband Access Infrastructure

Further, the article argued that Comcast is working on virtualizing its broadband access infrastructure and all the software elements in order to create an operating system for DOCSIS networks and broadband services, in general. “Again, we believe the idea here is for Comcast to exert the same level of operational control over its broadband access network as it is doing in subscribers’ homes (with X1), by developing an access network operating system upon which all CCAP, optical node and optical line terminals (OLTs) will run. This operating system will extend the existing DOCSIS specification into a virtualized environment, providing specifics for the provisioning of broadband services across the entire access network. Additionally, it will incorporate APIs to tie into RDK-B and extend service provisioning into the home. This new system, called s RDK-A (RDK for Access) will allow Comcast and any of its licensees to move faster toward a more virtualized future.”

 

Comcast’s Partnership with Harmonic and CableOS

At the time the article was written, the focus was on software, particularly the CableOS vCMTS platform from Harmonic that Comcast had selected to serve as its primary platform moving forward. Back in September 2016, Harmonic announced a warrant agreement with Comcast allowing the operator to potentially acquire 7.8 million shares of Harmonic stock based on sales and deployment milestones of Harmonic’s CableOS product. At the time, the article noted that “the agreement with Harmonic is interesting because the company has not been a major supplier of CCAPs to Comcast. But Harmonic’s CableOS (now cOS) platform addresses the anticipated changes Comcast and other MSOs will see in their broadband access networks.” We speculated that “not much is known regarding the specific software elements that Comcast is looking to incorporate into its longer-term vision of an access network OS. If this is the case, it is a potentially huge win for Harmonic. It could mean the licensing of its CableOS software to other cable operators. For Comcast, this would ultimately mean more control, technologically and economically, over how broadband services are created and delivered from its network, which will be absolutely critical as broadband encompasses fixed, Wi-Fi, and mobile networks.”

We could not have predicted that Comcast’s licensing blueprint would go well beyond software and control plane functions to also encompass amplifiers, remote PHY devices, and machine learning tools all designed to help cable operators reduce their time to market and improve their overall network reliability.

 

Why Rogers is the Right Partner

Beyond having already been a long-time customer of Comcast’s X1 video platform and having recently signed a 10-year deal for ongoing access to Comcast’s video platform and CPE, Rogers Communications was the right partner at the right time for Comcast, for two reasons: First, the company has been occupied with its massive merger with Shaw Communications, Canada’s second-largest cable operator. The deal, which was first announced in 2021, officially closed in 2023. However, the hard work of bridging their networks and vendors is still ongoing, taking valuable network planning resources and personnel.

Second, back in July 2022, Rogers experienced a major network outage that impacted not only 12 million Rogers broadband and mobile customers, but also a number of ISPs with wholesale access to Rogers’ network. The outage, lasting from 15 hours to multiple days, resulted in Rogers having to give out approximately $150 million in customer credits. Rogers also developed a $10 billion plan to improve network reliability over three years to prevent, or at least minimize future outages.

Adopting Comcast’s broadband access network blueprint made sense for an operator under heavy pressure to prove to its subscribers and the Canadian Government that its network challenges were behind it. Now, Rogers can focus on marketing and selling its services, especially as it faces intensifying competition from Telus and Bell Canada, both of which are moving forward with major fiber overbuilding projects.

 

Which Access Technology is Right for Rogers?

Comcast is moving full-speed ahead with Full Duplex (FDX) DOCSIS 4.0. Rogers has already publicly communicated that it is testing FDX technology in its lab. However, is that the right choice for Rogers, and, does the licensing of Comcast’s access network blueprint mean it is on a path to FDX, as opposed to Extended Spectrum (ESD)?

Similar to Comcast, Rogers has both a node plus zero portion of their HFC networks, as well as a more traditional node plus five or six portions. We estimate that the node plus zero covers around 1 million homes, while the more traditional HFC plants 3 million homes. In that node plus zero portion, Rogers has deployed GPON but is in the process of upgrading to XGS-PON. Shaw also has a smaller fiber footprint, but instead of GPON, Shaw has deployed 10G EPON.

For the bulk of its HFC footprint, Rogers was previously rumored to be on the path toward deploying ESD using 1.8GHz amplifiers. However, given the new licensing arrangement with Comcast and the additional spectrum management tools the Comcast solution provides, Rogers could very well be considering deploying more FDX throughout its system. This is especially the case if the amplifiers are proven to work consistently in node plus 6 and even node plus eight environments. Both the Rogers and Shaw plants have long spans and larger amplifier cascades to deal with.

Though FDX amplifiers are presumed to be considerably more expensive than 1.8GHz amplifiers, it can be argued that the cost savings in not having to swap out taps, which is required in ESD deployments, makes FDX a wash on a per-home basis. Time will tell whether this is true or not.

Also, there is something to be said for the idea of being able to use the shared spectrum of 108 MHz to 684 MHz dynamically across both the upstream and downstream based on traffic demands. Combining that flexibility with additional machine learning tools to anticipate network issues could go a long way to restoring customers’ faith in the Rogers network.

It’s also worth noting that Comcast’s licensing arrangement also provides for the management of fiber networks using both headend OLTs and remote OLT modules. So, Rogers and any other potential licensees could adopt the framework across both their DOCSIS and fiber footprints.

 

Will Comcast Technology Solutions License to Additional Cable Operators?

The ongoing (and now very real) threat of Comcast’s entry into the broadband access technology licensing game has certainly disrupted the vendor landscape. If you have not been supplying Comcast with vCMTS, RPD, amplifiers, or other technologies, then the TAM for your products certainly takes a hit, especially now with the combined entity of Rogers and Shaw being taken off the table.

The question now is this: Are there any other operators who could potentially license Comcast’s broadband access solution? The obvious candidates are the operators who have been licensing Comcast’s X1 video platform. Besides Rogers and Shaw, these include Cox Communications and Videotron.

At this time, however, we don’t believe any of these remaining operators are interested in licensing Comcast’s broadband architecture and services. X1 was timely because it provided an advanced UI and backend video management platform for a service (broadcast TV) that was hemorrhaging subscribers amidst increasing content costs. Broadband is not in that same situation. Plus, operators are far more reluctant to potentially cede roadmap control to another operator—especially since they have already been doing that in some cases with their equipment vendors.

But if operators continue to have difficulty adding broadband subscribers, especially with competition increasing and margins potentially decreasing, then that could open the door for Comcast to expand its broadband access licensing footprint. Just as Broadcom has made its unified DOCSIS 4.0 chipset available to all operators in an effort to build scale, Comcast is looking to build a similar scale for its offering. It won’t be a significant money-maker for the operator, but more a mindset and market-maker.

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Two startups with shared advisory board members are hitting the market with solutions designed to facilitate cable’s convergence with wireless and 5G. The announcements are well-timed, given the funk cable operators find themselves in as net broadband subscriber losses mount, but also as those same operators continue to take a sizable share of new mobile subscribers. Additionally, the cable industry, which has for years benefited from decades of shared development cycles and deployments of the latest DOCSIS technologies, finds itself with multiple paths forward (DOCSIS 3.1+, DOCSIS 4.0, fiber, FWA, etc.) and trepidation that the next technology decision will leave it further behind its competitors.

Air5 and Air Wireless each aim to solve different problems cable operators face today. However, both share a core belief: cable operators’ future success depends on their ability to get to market quickly and build networks that transparently handle both fixed broadband and wireless traffic and services across their networks. In a recent blog, I detailed how US telcos are betting on service convergence to continue to chip away at cable’s massive broadband subscriber base. It stands to reason that cable operators will fight back using the same approach.

 

Extending DOCSIS Wirelessly

First, Air Wireless is pitching a solution that allows cable operators to extend their DOCSIS networks and services wirelessly using E-band spectrum, ranging from 60 GHz to 90GHz, and a point-to-multipoint architecture that looks and feels very similar to how optical nodes are distributed throughout an HFC network. The technology isn’t new. In fact, Air Wireless acquired the assets from a Slovenian startup known as Globtel, which had developed the Gigaray platform to transport voice, video, and DOCSIS data traffic wirelessly from a base station to transceivers located at businesses, MDUs, and residences. The transceivers connect to existing DOCSIS 3.1 modems and set-top boxes, allowing for a quick and easy method for aggregating and backhauling DOCSIS traffic.

The primary benefit of the Air Wireless solution to operators is time-to-market. Operators can extend their DOCSIS networks without having to run fiber to a new node location. Or, an operator can deploy the solution as a way to get services to an MDU or new neighborhood quickly and in advance of a more traditional buildout of an HFC network. In rural areas or regions where the costs associated with deploying fixed infrastructure just don’t make sense relative to subscriber ARPU, the Air Wireless solution gives operators a more cost-effective option for DOCSIS network extensions. Because of this flexibility, the company is reported in customer trials around the globe.

In the US, the key opportunity lies in the upcoming BEAD-, RDOF-, and Capital Projects Fund-related rollouts, which are time-sensitive and aimed at addressing lower-density rural and underserved areas. In India, cable operators such as Hathway, Den, and others are seeking ways to expand their networks and remain competitive with Reliance Jio and Bharti, both of which have begun significant fiber expansions. The Indian government continues to subsidize rural broadband rollouts to remote villages, where the Air Wireless solution could play a role in distributing broadband services. In Europe, where permitting delays and labor costs make network expansions costly, the Air Wireless solution could be used to extend DOCSIS networks more quickly.

One of the more interesting applications for the Air Wireless solution that also has global appeal is using the platform as a way to overbuild and upgrade existing HFC plants to deliver end-to-end DOCSIS 3.1 capabilities and take advantage of the more flexible modulation formats offered by OFDM. Many operators are still using DOCSIS 2.0 and DOCSIS 3.0, in some cases without channel bonding. Instead of potentially swapping out amplifiers or doing faceplate upgrades for new diplex filters, operators could use the Air Wireless platform with Remote PHY or Remote MACPHY modules to move to DOCSIS 3.1 more cost-effectively. In Latin America, for example, where cable operators are moving to fiber instead of upgrading from DOCSIS 2.0 or 3.0 to DOCSIS 3.1, the Air Wireless platform could give them a more cost-effective way to add throughput without the significant labor costs associated with trenching fiber.

 

Converging DOCSIS and 5G

While Air Wireless is focused on extending DOCSIS networks wirelessly, Air5 is focused on converging DOCSIS and wireless networks, taking advantage of architectural similarities between mobile backhaul networks and DAA-based DOCSIS networks. The CU (Centralized Unit) and Distributed Unit (DU) of 5G networks are roughly equivalent to the Remote PHY, Remote MACPHY, and select functions of the vCMTS in DAA networks.

Ultimately, the vision is that optical nodes become small cell sites with a shared infrastructure allowing cable operators to continue delivering DOCSIS data services as they do while also either continuing to offload their MVNO mobile traffic onto their Wi-Fi networks or directly onto the converged network via radio units that can handle the frequency conversion required to hand off mobile traffic. The shared infrastructure will require an upgrade to existing outside plant equipment so that DOCSIS data can still be delivered in spectrum up to 1.2 GHz, while 5G traffic can be transported anywhere between 3 GHz-5 GHz. New amplifiers, which Air5 is working on with partners, will have to be deployed. That might be a hard pill to swallow for operators who are just about to upgrade much of their installed amplifier base to 1.8 GHz.

Fixed-mobile convergence has been in various stages of discussion and deployment for years if not decades. So, why is this time different? Let’s consider a few different reasons:

  1. Mobile subscriber growth and service bundling are critical for cable operators. In the US, the largest cable operators have seen significant growth in their mobile subscriber numbers, providing a silver lining to the dark cloud of broadband subscriber losses. Cable operators have grown their mobile subscriber base via MVNO relationships with Verizon and T-Mobile, but they are increasingly looking to deploy their own CBRS spectrum to become more self-reliant. Service bundling—especially if it allows subscribers to do truly seamless hand-offs between 5G and Wi-Fi networks while maintaining a single subscriber identity—is a critical goal of all operators.
  2. Cable operators have powered outside plants. One of the biggest arguments against HFC networks, when compared with PON-based fiber networks, is actually a significant advantage when it comes to convergence: Power. HFC networks rely on signals that need to be amplified approximately every 2500 feet. To support this, 90-volt AC power inserters have been deployed at consistent intervals to provide for the powering of nodes, amplifiers, and Wi-Fi access points. In fact, US cable operators have deployed over 600 K Wi-Fi access points partially due to the availability of power at strategic locations. Cable operators not only have enough power to deploy small cells but also the fiber necessary to backhaul these small cell sites.
  3. Control and user plane separation makes convergence easier. Because 5G core networks provide control and user plane separation, it becomes easier to converge 5G and Wi-Fi networks across the RAN and core. Additionally, cable operators’ transition to DAA architectures helps to virtualize DOCSIS networks. This gives operators much greater flexibility to offer network slicing, allowing Wi-Fi traffic can ultimately be managed by a converged 5G and DOCSIS core. This process begins with an evolution of the vCMTS to a vBNG and then an AGF (Access Gateway Function), which essentially serves as the bridge between the wireline network and the mobile core.

 

Expanding the Component Vendor Ecosystem

One of the benefits of convergence is the potential increase in the number of component vendors developing new chips to support the larger, combined TAM (Total Addressable Market.) There is probably no segment in the communications sector that could use a supplier expansion other than DOCSIS, which has historically been dominated by Broadcom. In fact, in a recent blog, we argued that Broadcom’s decision to accelerate the availability of a 3 GHz-capable unified chip that supports DOCSIS 5.0 could be an effort to “pre-empt efforts by upstarts such as Air5, which is developing products that fuse 5G and DOCSIS networks and, simultaneously, opening up the shrinking DOCSIS component ecosystem to suppliers in the RAN and mobility sectors.”

We have already seen significant consolidation of DOCSIS infrastructure and CPE suppliers in the last year and we fully expect that this will continue, as the DOCSIS equipment TAM, by itself, is not enough to sustain the current vendor ecosystem. Component supplier consolidation is expected soon, as well, certainly with Qualcomm’s rumored exploration of an acquisition of Intel.

Lurking around are the likes of Nvidia and AMD, who are looking to merge signal processing and GPUs. Though these components would be designed for use in mobility networks, there is no reason they couldn’t be adapted to work in converged networks, as well.