“Initial 5G New Radio (5G NR) network launches are being implemented with 5G Non-standalone (5G NSA) architectures that utilize the 4G Evolved Packet Core (EPC); therefore we have pushed out by one year (from 2019 to 2020), our expectations of when we will see the first commercial deployments of 5G Core,” said Dave Bolan, analyst with the Dell’Oro Group.
“WPC revenue growth is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due primarily to subscriber growth, migration of more subscribers to VoLTE, and increasing data usage per subscriber. Other factors contributing to growth is the upgrade of EPC to a control and user plane separation (CUPS) architecture to handle 5G traffic and Internet of Things (IoT),” added Bolan.
EPC will be the workhorse for the core throughout the forecast period. We expect it to peak in revenue in 2022. From a volume perspective, the number of sessions for EPC will increase through 2023.
The drive toward Network Function Virtualization (NFV) with cloud-native virtual network functions (VNFs) will continue in the forecast period increasing the share of the revenue to 88% in 2023.
The Dell’Oro Group Wireless Packet Core 5-Year Forecast Report offers a comprehensive overview of market trends by network function implementation (Non-NFV and NFV), covering revenue, sessions, average selling price, and regional forecasts for various network functions.
The latest Dell’Oro Group Optical Transport 5-Year forecast report claims that the cumulative Optical Transport equipment spend is projected to approach $80 billion over the next five years. The majority of the Optical Transport revenue will be driven by demand for coherent 200+ Gbps wavelengths.
“The market demand for 100 Gbps will continue to be large, but all future optical transport market growth will be driven by sales of higher wavelength speeds,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “We believe service providers are still motivated to chase better spectral efficiencies to economically increase network capacity while maintaining their capital spend. Hence, the desire to migrate to higher wavelength speeds such as 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps. Fortunately, component and system manufacturers are striving to deliver better coherent solutions with each new product generation. As a result, optical routes that once were only serviced by 100 Gbps wavelengths are now serviceable by 200 Gbps wavelengths and 400 Gbps in the future,” continued Yu.
Additional highlights from the Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report:
The cumulative spend on Optical Transport equipment during the next five years is projected to grow 16 percent.
Revenue from coherent 200+ Gbps DWDM shipments is forecast to grow at a 30 percent compounded annual growth rate.
Disaggregated WDM systems will be a larger share of the market.
About the report – The Dell’Oro Group Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the Optical Transport industry with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, Tributary/Line or Wavelength shipments (by speed up to 600 Gbps). The report tracks DWDM long haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switch equipment.
5G NR Expected to Advance at a Faster Pace Than LTE
The latest Mobile RAN 5-year forecast report claims the robust demand for 5G NR will propel the cumulative worldwide RAN market to nearly $160 B over the next five years.
“Even if 5G will be just another ‘G’ initially, the reality is that for the carriers with the right spectrum assets, the mid-band Massive MIMO business case can be extremely compelling for the MBB use case,” said Stefan Pongratz, analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, we are more optimistic today about the mmW opportunity than we were a year ago. But, clearly, it will take some with the current inter-site distances before the cost per GB economics will be as favorable with the mmW spectrum as the mid-band sub-6 GHz spectrum using the existing macro grid and Massive MIMO,” continued Pongratz.
Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report:
5G NR will scale at a significantly faster pace than LTE.
Sub-6 GHz spectrum is expected to drive the lion share of the RAN capex (Figure 1).
New capex spending on IoT, Fixed Wireless Access, In-Building, and Public Safety opportunities for both private and public deployments will compose a double-digit share of the RAN market by 2023.
Sub-6 GHz Massive MIMO transceiver shipments are projected to eclipse 200 million.
Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the Mobile RAN industry with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, transceivers or RF carrier shipments, unit shipments for base station controllers, and base transceiver stations for 5GNR, 5G NR Sub 6 GHz, 5G NR mmW, LTE, LTE FDD, LTE TDD, WCDMA, GSM, CDMA, and WiMAX. The report also include splits for macro and non-residential small cells and Massive MIMO.