Sameh Boujelbene, Author at Dell'Oro Group

With a wave of announcements coming out of GTC, countless articles and blogs have already covered the biggest highlights. Rather than simply rehashing the news, I want to take a different approach—analyzing what stood out to me from a networking perspective. As someone who closely tracks the market, it’s clear that AI workloads are driving a steep disruption in networking infrastructure. While a number of announcements at GTC25 were compute related, NVIDIA made it clear that implementations of next generation GPUs and accelerators wouldn’t be made possible without major innovations on the networking side.

1) The New Age of AI Reasoning Driving 100X More Compute Than a Year Ago

Jensen highlighted how the new era of AI reasoning is driving the evolution of scaling laws, transitioning from pre-training to post-training and test-training. This shift demands an enormous increase in compute power to process data efficiently. At GTC 2025, he emphasized that the required compute capacity is now estimated to be 100 times greater than what was anticipated just a year ago.

2) The Network Defines the AI Data Center

The way AI compute nodes are connected will have profound implications on efficiency, cost, and performance. Scaling up, rather than scaling out, offers the lowest latency, cost, and power consumption when connecting accelerated nodes in the same compute fabric. At GTC 2025, NVIDIA unveiled plans for its upcoming NVLink 6/7 and NVSwitch 6/7, key components of its next-generation Rubin platform, reinforcing the critical role of NVLink switches in its strategy. Additionally, the Spectrum-X switch platform, designed for scaling out, represents another major pillar of NVIDIA’s vision (Chart). NVIDIA is committed to a “one year-rhythm”, with networking keeping pace with GPU requirements. Other key details from NVIDIA’s roadmap announcement also caught our attention, and we are excited to share these with our clients.

3) Power Is the New Currency

The industry is more power-constrained than ever. NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin Ultra is designed to accommodate 576 dies in a single rack, consuming 600 kW—a significant jump from the current Blackwell rack, which already requires liquid cooling and consumes between 60 kW and 120 kW. Additionally, as we approach 1 million GPUs per cluster, power constraints are forcing these clusters to become highly distributed. This shift is driving an explosion in the number of optical interconnects, both intra- and inter-data center, which will exacerbate the power challenge. NVIDIA is tackling these power challenges on multiple fronts, as explained below.

4) Liquid-Cooled Switches Will Become a Necessity, Not a Choice

After liquid cooling racks and servers, switches are next. NVIDIA’s latest 51.2 T SpectrumX switches offer both liquid-cooled and air-cooled options. However, all future 102.4 T Spectrum-X switches will be liquid-cooled by default.

5) Co-packaged Optics (CPO) in Networking Chips Before GPUs

Another key reason for liquid cooling racks is to maximize the number of GPUs within a single rack while leveraging copper for short-distance connectivity—”Copper when you can, optics when you must.” When optics are necessary, NVIDIA has found a way to save power with Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). NVIDIA plans to make CPO available on its InfiniBand Quantum switches in 2H25 and on its Spectrum-X switches in 2H26. However, NVIDIA will continue to support pluggable optics across different SKUs, reinforcing our view that data centers will adopt a hybrid approach to balance performance, efficiency, and flexibility.

6) Impact on Ethernet Switch Vendor Landscape

According to our AI Networks for AI Workloads report, three major vendors dominated the Ethernet portion of the AI Network market in 2024.

However, over the next few years, we anticipate greater vendor diversity at both the chip and system levels. We anticipate that photonic integration in switches will introduce a new dimension, potentially reshaping the dynamics of an already vibrant vendor landscape. We foresee a rapid pace of innovation in the coming years—not just in technology, but at the business model level as well.

Networking could be the key factor that shifts the balance of power in the AI race and customers appetite for innovation and cutting-edge technologies is at an unprecedented level. As one hyperscaler put it during a panel at GTC 2025: “AI infrastructure is not for the faint of heart.”

For more detailed views and insights on the AI Networks for AI Workloads report, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com.

Significant Share Shifts Expected in 2025 as Ethernet Gains Momentum in AI Back-end Networks

The networking industry is experiencing a dramatic shift, driven by the rise of AI workloads and the need for new AI back-end networks to connect an ever-increasing number of accelerators in large AI clusters. While investments in AI back-end networks are reaching unprecedented levels, traditional front-end networks needed to connect general-purpose servers remain essential.

At Dell’Oro Group, we’ve just updated our five-year forecast reports for both the front-end as well as the back-end and we’re still bullish on both. Below are some key takeaways:

AI Back-End Network Spending Set to Surpass $100B through 2029 with Ethernet Gaining Momentum

Despite growing concerns about the sustainability of spending on accelerated infrastructure—especially in light of DeepSeek’s recent open-source model, which requires significantly fewer resources than its U.S. counterparts—we remain optimistic. Recent data center capex announcements by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta in their January/February earnings calls showed ongoing commitment to a sustained high level of AI infrastructure capex supports that view.

We have again raised our forecast for data center switch sales sold in AI Back-end networks with our January 2025 report. However, not all technologies are benefiting equally.

Ethernet is experiencing significant momentum, propelled by supply and demand factors. More large-scale AI clusters are now adopting Ethernet as their primary networking fabric. One of the most striking examples is xAI’s Colossus, a massive NVIDIA GPU-based cluster that has opted for Ethernet deployment.

We therefore revised our projections, moving up the anticipated crossover point where Ethernet surpasses InfiniBand to 2027.

Major share shifts anticipated for Ethernet AI Back-end Networks in 2025

While Celestica, Huawei, and NVIDIA dominated the Ethernet segment in 2024, the competitive landscape is set to evolve in 2025, with Accton, Arista, Cisco, Juniper, Nokia, and other vendors expected to gain ground. We expect the vendor landscape in AI Back-end networks to remain very dynamic as Cloud SPs hedge their bets by diversifying their supply on both the compute side and the networking that goes with it.

Strong Rebound in Front-end Networks Spending in 2025 and Beyond

Despite the challenges in 2024, we expect growth in the front-end market to resume in 2025 and beyond, driven by several factors. These include the need to build additional capacity in front-end networks to support back-end deployments, especially for greenfield projects. These additional front-end network connectivity deployments are expected to include high speeds (>100 Gbps), driving a price premium. Sales growth will be further stimulated by inferencing applications that may not require accelerated servers and will instead operate in front-end networks, whether at centralized locations or edge sites.

The Road Ahead

As AI workloads expand and diversify, the networking infrastructure that supports them—in both front-end and back-end must evolve accordingly. The transition to higher-speed Ethernet and the shifting competitive landscape among vendors suggest that 2025 could be a pivotal year for Ethernet data center switching market.

For more detailed views and insights on the Ethernet Switch—Data Center report or the AI Networks for AI Workloads report, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com.

Last month was incredibly exciting, to say the least! We had the opportunity to attend two of the most impactful and prominent events in the industry: NVDA’s GTC followed by OFC.

As previously discussed in my pre-OFC show blog, we have been anticipating that AI networks will be in the spotlight at OFC 2024 and will accelerate the development of innovative optical connectivity solutions. These solutions are tailored to address the explosive growth in bandwidth within AI clusters while tackling cost and power consumption challenges. GTC 2024 has further intensified this focus. During GTC 2024, Nvidia announced the latest Blackwell B200 Tensor Core GPU, designed to empower trillion-parameter AI Large Language Models. The Blackwell B200 demands advanced 800 Gbps networking, aligning perfectly with the predictions outlined in our AI Networks for AI Workloads report. With an anticipated 10X traffic growth in AI workloads every two years, these AI workloads are expected to outpace traditional front-end networks by at least two speed upgrade cycles.

While a multitude of topics and innovative solutions were discussed at OFC regarding inter-data center applications as well as compute interconnect for scaling up the number of accelerators within the same domain, this blog will primarily focus on intra-data center applications. Specifically, it will focus on scaling out the network needed to connect various accelerated nodes in large AI clusters with 1000’s of accelerators. This network is commonly referred to in the industry as the ‘AI Back-end Network’ (also referred to; by some vendors; as the network for East-West traffic). Some of the topics and solutions that have been explored at the show are as follows:

1) Linear Drive Pluggable Optics vs. Linear Receive Optics vs. Co-Packaged Optics

Pluggable optics are expected to account for an increasingly significant portion of power consumption at a system level. An issue that will get further amplified as Cloud SPs build their next-generation AI networks featuring a proliferation of high-speed optics.

At OFC 2023, the introduction of Linear Drive Pluggable Optics (LPOs) promising significant cost and power savings through the removal of the DSP, initiated a flurry of testing activities. Fast forward to OFC 2024, we witnessed nearly 20 demonstrations, featuring key players including Amphenol, Eoptolink, HiSense, Innolight, and others. Conversations during the event revealed industry-wide enthusiasm for the high-quality 100G SerDes integrated into the latest 51.2 Tbps network switch chips, with many eager to capitalize on this advancement to be able to remove the DSP from the optical pluggable modules.

However, despite the excitement, the hesitancy from hyperscalers — with the exception of ByteDance and Tencent, who have announced plans to test the technology by end of this year— suggests that LPOs may not be poised for mass adoption just yet. Interviews highlighted hyperscalers’ reluctance to shoulder the responsibility of qualification and potential failure of LPOs. Instead, they express a preference for switch suppliers to handle those responsibilities.

In the interim, early deployments of 51.2 Tbps network chips are expected to continue leveraging pluggable optics, at least through the middle of next year. However, if LPOs can demonstrate safe deployment at mass scale while offering significant power savings for hyperscalers — enabling them to deploy more accelerators per rack — the temptation to adopt may prove irresistible. Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether LPOs can deliver on these promises.

Furthermore, Half-Retimed Linear Optics (HALO), also known as Linear Receive Optics (LROs) were discussed at the show. LRO integrates the DSP chip only on the transmitter side (as opposed to completely removing it in the case of LPOs). Our interviews revealed that while LPOs may proof to be doable at 100G-PAM4 SerDes, they may become challenging at 200G-PAM4 SerDes and that’s when LROs may be needed.

Meanwhile, Co-Packaged Optics (CPOs) remain in development, with large industry players such as Broadcom showcasing ongoing development and progress in the technology. While we believe current LPO and LRO solutions will certainly have a faster time to market with similar promises as CPOs, the latter may eventually become the sole solution capable of enabling higher speeds at some point in the future.

Before closing this section, let’s just not forget that, when possible, copper would be a much better alternative than all of the optical connectivity options discussed above. Put simply, use copper when you can, use optics when you must. Interestingly, liquid cooling may facilitate the densification of accelerators within the rack, enabling increased usage of copper for connecting various accelerator nodes within the same rack. The recent announcement of the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 at GTC perfectly illustrates this trend.

2) Optical Circuit Switches

OFC 2024 brought some interesting Optical Circuit Switches (OCS) related announcements. OCS can bring many benefits including high bandwidth and low network latency as well as significant capex savings. That is because OCS switches can lead to a significant reduction in the number of required electrical switches within the network which eliminates the expensive optical-to-electrical-to-optical conversions associated with electrical switches. Additionally, unlike electrical switches, OCS switches are speed agnostic and don’t necessarily need to be upgraded when servers adopt next generation optical transceivers.

However, OCS is a novel technology and so far, only Google, after many years in development, was able to deploy it in mass in its data center networks. Additionally, OCS switches may require a change in the installed base of fiber. For that reason, we are still watching to see if any other Cloud SP, besides Google, has any plans to follow suit and adopt OCS switches in the network.

3) The Path to 3.2 Tbps

At OFC 2023, numerous 1.6 Tbps optical components and transceivers based on 200G per lambda were introduced. At OFC 2024, we witnessed further technology demonstrations of such 1.6 Tbps optics. While we don’t anticipate volume shipment of 1.6 Tbps until 2025/2026, the industry has already begun efforts in exploring various paths and options towards achieving 3.2 Tbps.

Given the complexity encountered in transitioning from 100G-PAM4 electrical lane speeds to 200G-PAM4, initial 3.2 Tbps solutions may utilize 16 lanes of 200G-PAM4 within an OSFP-XD form factor, instead of 8 lanes of 400G-PAMx. It’s worth noting that OSFP-XD, which was initially explored and demonstrated two years ago at OFC 2022, may be brought back to action due to the urgency stemming from AI cluster deployments. 3.2 Tbps solutions in OSFP-XD form factor offer superior faceplate density and cost savings compared to 1.6 Tbps. Ultimately, the industry is expected to figure out a way to enable 3.2 Tbps based on 8 lanes of 400G-PAMx SerDes, albeit it may take some time to reach that target.

In summary, OFC 2024 showcased numerous potential solutions aimed at addressing common challenges: cost, power, and speed. We anticipate that different hyperscalers will make distinct choices, leading to market diversification. However, one of the key considerations will be time to market. It’s important to note that the refresh cycle in the AI back-end network is typically around 18 to 24 months, significantly shorter compared to the 5 to 6 years seen in the traditional front-end networks used to connect general-purpose server.

For more detailed views and insights on the Ethernet Switch—Data Center report or the AI Networks for AI Workloads report, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com.

Happy New Year! We couldn’t hope for a more exciting start to the year than with the groundbreaking announcement that HPE has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Juniper. In this blog, we delve into the potential impact of this acquisition on the market, along with additional predictions for what 2024 may have in store for us:

The Campus Switch Market is on the Verge of a Correction in 2024

Right before the holidays, we published our 3Q23 reports which provided an overview of the market performance for the first nine months of 2023. Based on those results, the market is estimated to have grown strong double-digits in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of a very robust growth. As a reminder, the typical growth rate in the campus switch market, pre-pandemic, has been in the low-to-mid single digits. The outstanding performance in the last couple of years begs the question: where do we go from here? Based on our interviews with the vendors as well as value-added resellers (VARs) and system integrators (SIs), we believe the market is poised for a correction in 2024. We anticipate the demand in the market to slow down significantly as customers absorb and digest existing capacity. Additionally, conversations with key vendors indicate their anticipation of a return to normal backlog levels by the beginning of 2024. Once the backlog is restored to its typical state, sales performance will more accurately mirror organic market demand, eliminating the potential for backlog-driven inflation

2. HPE/Juniper acquisition Will create a Tectonic Shift in the Market

While the HPE/Juniper acquisition may not be finalized until the end of the year, we anticipate witnessing its impact on the market and competitive landscape throughout 2024. We foresee other vendors accelerating the pace of innovation and product introductions, anticipating potential synergies created by the combined HPE/Juniper entity, as explained in my HPE/Juniper blog. Additionally, we expect employees to transition between companies, fostering cross-pollination. Monitoring customer reactions will be crucial throughout the year. We believe the HPE/Juniper deal may further amplify the anticipated pause in market demand as customers will be seeking clarity on how the acquisition will impact future roadmaps.

3. AI capabilities will increasingly define the competitive landscape in the market

In the midst of intense competition and an expected slowdown in market demand, vendors find themselves compelled to enhance their offerings with AI capabilities. The addition of these AI capabilities brings several benefits, including product differentiation, increased demand for new use cases and applications, acceleration in product refresh cycles, and higher customer retention. However, it remains intriguing to observe vendors’ ability to effectively monetize these features. Furthermore, as customers weigh the options between on-premises and cloud-managed solutions, as well as subscription versus perpetual consumption models, we believe that AI features will play a pivotal role in influencing these choices. Customers are likely to opt for the model that allows them to benefit the most from these AI features.

For more detailed views and insights on the campus switch market, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com

Happy New Year! As usual, we’re excited to start the year by reflecting on the developments in the Ethernet data center switch market throughout 2023 and exploring the anticipated trends for 2024.

First, looking back at 2023, the market performed largely in line with our expectations as outlined in our 2023 prediction blog published in January of last year. As of January 2024, data center switch sales are set to achieve double-digit growth in 2023, based on the data collected up to the 3Q23 period. Shipments of 200/400 Gbps nearly doubled in 2023. While Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta continue to dominate deployments, we observed a notable increase in 200/400 Gbps port shipments destined toward Tier 2/3 Cloud Service Providers (SPs) and large enterprises. In the meantime, 800 Gbps deployments remained sluggish throughout 2023, with expectations for acceleration in 2024. Unforgettably, 2023 marked a transformative moment in the history of AI with the emergence of generative AI applications, propelling meaningful impact and changes on modern data center networks.

Now as we look into 2024, below are our top 3 predictions for the year:

1. The Data Center Switch market to slow down in 2024

Following three consecutive years of double-digit growth, the Ethernet data center switch market is expected to slow down in 2024 and grow at less than half the rate of 2023. We expect 2024 sales performance to be suppressed by normalization of backlog, digestion of existing capacity, and optimization of spending caused either by macroeconomic conditions or a shift in focus to AI and budgets diverted away from traditional front-end networks used to connect general-purpose servers.

2. The 800 Gbps adoption to significantly accelerate in 2024

We predict 2024 to be a tremendous year for 800 Gbps deployments, as we expect a swift adoption of a second wave of 800 Gbps (based on 51.2 Tbps chips) from a couple of large Cloud SPs. The first wave of 800 Gbps (based on 25.6 Tbps chips) started back in 2022/2023 but has been slow as it has been adopted only by one Cloud SP. In the meantime, we expect 400 Gbps port shipments to continue to grow as 51.2 Tbps chips will also enable another wave of 400 Gbps adoption. We expect 400 Gbps/800 Gbps speeds to achieve more than 40% penetration by 2027 in terms of port volume.

3. AI workloads to drive new network requirements and to expand the market opportunity for both Ethernet and InfiniBand

The enormous appetite for AI is reshaping the data center switch market. Emerging generative AI applications deal with trillions of parameters that drive the need for thousands or even hundreds of thousands of accelerated nodes. To connect these accelerated nodes, there is a need for a new fabric, called the AI back-end network, which is different from the traditional front-end network mostly used to connect general-purpose servers. Currently, InfiniBand is dominating the AI back-end networks but Ethernet is expected to gain significant share over the next five years. We provide more details about the AI back-end network market in our recently published Advanced Research Report: ‘AI Networks for AI Workloads.’ Among many other requirements, AI back-end networks will accelerate the migration to high speeds. As noted in the chart below, the majority of switch ports in AI back-end networks are expected to be 800 Gbps by 2025 and 1600 Gbps by 2027.