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The broadband industry’s relentless march toward multi-gigabit speeds is hitting a wall—not a technical one, but a practical one. As we look toward 2026, the competitive battleground is shifting from headline speeds to experiential quality. Operators across fiber, cable, FWA, and LEO satellite are recognizing that reducing latency, minimizing jitter, and ensuring rock-solid reliability matter more to customer satisfaction than offering 2, 5, or even 10 Gbps services that customers neither need nor fully utilize.

Let’s start by taking a look at the specific technologies and operator implementations that will fuel the drive towards better broadband:

  • XGS-PON and Beyond: Latency Takes Center Stage:

    While the industry continues its migration from GPON to XGS-PON, the focus has shifted from the 10G headline number to the latency improvements these platforms enable. Modern XGS-PON deployments are achieving sub-5ms latency consistently, with operators like AT&T leveraging dynamic bandwidth allocation to minimize jitter for latency-sensitive applications. The real innovation isn’t the speed—it’s the intelligence baked into these platforms that enables real-time traffic prioritization and quality assurance. This quality-first approach is fundamentally reshaping PON roadmaps, pushing large-scale 50G PON adoption out by 3-5 years as operators instead invest in XGS-PON enhancements that deliver immediate quality improvements. Cooperative DBA (Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation), low-latency scheduling, and time-sensitive networking (TSN) features provide tangible benefits and competitive advantages today.

  •  Edge Computing and CDN Proliferation:

    The push toward edge computing is fundamentally reshaping broadband access network architectures. Comcast’s deployment of vCMTS pods throughout its footprint exemplifies this trend, bringing content and compute functions within 10-20 miles of end users. This isn’t about bandwidth—it’s about ensuring that cloud gaming, AR/VR applications, and real-time collaboration tools perform flawlessly regardless of peak usage times. It is also about accommodating shifting traffic patterns and priorities on a per-service group and per-customer basis. No one knows the potential impact that agentic AI will have on potential bandwidth utilization. In fact, it is likely to have little impact on total bandwidth consumed. Instead, the likely scenario is that real-time responses and interactions will become the norm and the expectations of all broadband users. Ensuring that level of performance is again far more about latency, jitter, and other traffic characteristics than it is about sheer throughput.

  • Network Slicing and Service Differentiation:

    5G’s network slicing concept is now migrating to fixed broadband networks and services. Charter and other operators are experimenting with virtual network slices that guarantee specific latency and jitter parameters for different service tiers—not faster speeds, but guaranteed performance for work-from-home, gaming, or healthcare applications. In this context, network slicing goes way beyond traditional policy enforcement. Instead, the focus here is on creating a virtual, dedicated network within your existing hardware and software resources, as well as your spectrum and wavelengths. GFiber and Nokia demonstrated a proof-of-concept whereby network congestion was simulated on a residential Wi-Fi network that resulted in significant lag and pixelation  for online gamers. A dedicated, on-demand network slice was established from the Wi-Fi gateway all the way to the core of the network, which alleviated the performance issues for the gamers. While the technology is certainly available to take this from a POC to a live service, the bigger question for operators is how (and if) they can monetize this service. Or perhaps it simply becomes an expected feature of all broadband networks, as its goal is to improve the user experience.

  • Wi-Fi 7 and Intelligent Home Networking:

    Speaking of user experience, the home network remains the Achilles’ heel of broadband quality. Wi-Fi 7’s multi-link operation (MLO) and deterministic latency features represent a quantum leap in reliability. But the real game-changer is the intelligence layer operators are adding—AT&T’s Smart Home Manager and Comcast’s xFi platform are evolving from basic management tools to AI-driven optimization engines that proactively identify and resolve issues before customers notice them.

 

But “Better and Bigger” Will Also Be a Major Theme

The emphasis on delivering high-quality and reliable broadband services, as opposed to just faster broadband services, will also underpin another ongoing shift in the market this year. Continued consolidation among broadband providers will deliver improved broadband quality across larger, more unified footprints. Hence, “better and bigger.” With fixed wireless having shown cable’s vulnerability in many major markets, the race is on to expand network footprints while also taking advantage of access and core technologies that improve service quality and reliability over multiple physical layers.

To start off the year, Verizon expects to close on its $20 B acquisition of Frontier in the first quarter of 2026. The imminent transaction isn’t only about adding fiber passings—it’s also about acquiring a mature operation with established network intelligence systems. It took significant time and capital to get Frontier’s network to this point. But it has paid off in improved customer satisfaction and NPS (Net Promoter Score).

Both AT&T and T-Mobile are following similar paths to network expansion, employing multiple buildout strategies incorporating FWA, direct fiber builds, joint venture partnerships, and third-party wholesale arrangements. The operators’ diversified approaches to fiber deployments provide significant competitive advantages. While pure-play fiber companies like Google Fiber focus primarily on high-density markets, and cable companies upgrade existing infrastructure, AT&T and T-Mobile’s multiple models allow them to compete effectively across the entire market spectrum.

This flexibility has become increasingly important as competition intensifies. In markets where Comcast or Charter might have cable infrastructure advantages, AT&T and T-Mobile can leverage joint ventures or wholesale arrangements to maintain competitive presence without overextending capital resources. In rural markets where traditional competitors might not venture, government partnerships and wholesale arrangements enable both operators to capture market share in underserved areas.

Most importantly, with both operators stamping their approval on these networks in the form of their very recognizable and respected brand names, we fully expect that quality and reliability standards enforced across their existing networks and services will be easily transferred to their expanded network footprints.

 

The Impact of SpaceX and Amazon LEO

Of course, any discussion around bigger or better broadband in 2026 must include the budding LEO rivals SpaceX and Amazon. Collectively, both providers are set to receive about 21% of the BEAD location awards, resulting in coverage for approximately 888 K locations across the US. Though the companies are only set to receive about 4% of the $20 B in awards from the BEAD program, the discrepancy in total revenue versus total locations served is the reason why the satellite operators were selected. The average BEAD subsidy for SpaceX runs $500-$2,000 per location, compared to $3,700-$8,600 per location for fiber in the same states. States are making rational economic choices. When you’re connecting 10 homes across 50 square miles of mountainous terrain, the fiber business case collapses.

And now with SpaceX preparing for a massive IPO in 2026 that could value the company at nearly $1.5 trillion, it could very easily expand its Starlink coverage globally, purchase additional spectrum across global markets, and build out an entire, low-Earth orbit AI infrastructure whose scale would be unmatched. Its recent EchoStar spectrum purchase wasn’t just about the immediate direct-to-cell opportunity.  It’s about capturing the entire long tail of connectivity markets where traditional infrastructure economics fail. The BEAD awards validate the model. The carrier partnerships provide distribution. The spectrum enables the product roadmap. Together, they represent competitive repositioning that forces every terrestrial operator to recalculate their rural strategy.

The big question in 2026 and beyond is how Amazon responds. Jeff Bezos has already convinced key terrestrial communications providers that SpaceX shouldn’t be a monopoly, even if Amazon will be playing catch-up in the constellation race. Now, Bezos will have to quicky demonstrate its ability to get satellites in space and services up and running, meeting some stringent quality and reliability requirements established by both NTIA and the individual states.

 

Moving Forward

The “better not bigger” trend represents a maturation of the broadband industry. We’re moving from a “build it and they will come” mentality to a nuanced understanding of what actually drives customer satisfaction and reduces churn. Operators that successfully execute this transition—investing in intelligence, edge computing, and reliability over raw speed—will build sustainable competitive advantages that are much harder to replicate than simply lighting up another fiber wavelength.

As 2026 approaches, expect marketing messages to shift from “up to X Gbps” to “guaranteed performance,” from speed tests to quality scores, and from bandwidth tiers to application-specific assurances. The operators who recognize this shift early and invest accordingly won’t just retain customers—they’ll steal them from competitors still fighting yesterday’s gigabit war.

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Nokia has a plan to reverse its declining RAN revenue share trajectory—and NVIDIA is now a significant part of that plan. What does this mean for the RAN market? After an intense month of updates from GTC and Nokia’s CMD, this is an opportune moment to review the scope of the Nokia–NVIDIA announcements, the potential RAN implications of their partnership, and Nokia’s broader RAN strategy.

A quick recap of NVIDIA’s entry into RAN: Based on the announcement and subsequent discussions, our understanding is that NVIDIA will invest $1 B in Nokia and that NVIDIA-powered AI-RAN products will be incorporated into Nokia’s RAN portfolio starting in 2027 (with trials beginning in 2026). While RAN compute—which represents less than half of the $30 B+ RAN market—is immaterial relative to NVIDIA’s $4+ T market cap, the potential upside becomes more meaningful when viewed in the context of NVIDIA’s broader telecom ambitions and its $165 B in trailing-twelve-month revenue.

Source: Nokia

Perhaps more importantly, both Nokia and NVIDIA appear aligned on the role that telecom networks and assets will play as we move deeper into the AI era. Both companies broadly believe that AI will transform society—enabling robots, self-driving cars, humanoids, and digital twins for manufacturing, among other use cases. NVIDIA envisions a future in which everything that moves will be autonomous. But achieving this requires transforming the network from a simple connectivity pipe into a distributed computing platform that functions as an AI grid.

Since this is not NVIDIA’s first attempt to enter the RAN market, it is worth noting that a key difference from prior efforts is a more pragmatic approach. Nokia is acutely aware of its customers’ risk profiles—operators cannot justify ROI based on unknowns. This time, the target is parity with its existing RAN in terms of performance, power, and TCO. Multi-tenancy and potential new revenue streams are certainly attractive, but they are not prerequisites—the ROI must stand on its own on a RAN-only basis.

Source: Nokia

 

Given the size of Nokia’s 1 M+ BTS installed base, there are currently three high-level paths to transition towards NVIDIA’s GPU/AI-RAN, listed here in order of importance/projected shares: 1) Purpose-built D-RAN (add card into existing AirScale slots), 2) D-RAN vRAN (COTS at cell site), 3) C-RAN vRAN (centralized COTS).

Considering that the macro-RAN market—including both baseband and radio—totals around $30 B annually and suppliers ship 1–2 M macros per year, it is clear that carriers have limited appetite to spend $10+ K on a GPU, even if the software model could yield additional benefits over time. NVIDIA and Nokia will likely provide more details on performance and hopefully pricing soon. For now, NVIDIA has indicated that the GPU optimized for D-RAN will be priced similarly to the ARC-Compact, while delivering roughly twice the capacity. Nokia, meanwhile, is targeting further margin improvement; during its CMD, the company stated that the new Mobile Infrastructure BU is aiming for a 48%–50% gross margin by 2028, up from 48% for the 4Q24–3Q25 period.

If the TCO and performance-per-watt gap with custom silicon continues to narrow, this partnership could have meaningful implications across multiple RAN domains. Beyond strengthening Nokia’s financial position, it also provides momentum for both the AI-RAN and Cloud-RAN movements. While the AI-RAN train had already left the station—and was expected to scale significantly in the second half of the 5G cycle, propelling AI-RAN to account for around a third of RAN by 2029, even before this announcement—Nokia’s decision to lean further into GPUs will only reinforce this trend.

Since Nokia’s customers want to leverage their existing AirScale investments, the D-RAN option using empty AirScale slots is expected to dominate in the near term. At the same time, this partnership is unlikely to materially affect the C-RAN vs. D-RAN mix, Open RAN adoption, or the growth prospects for multi-tenancy RAN. The shift toward GPUs is also unlikely to alter the broader 6G trajectory.

However, it could influence vendor dynamics. Nokia remains optimistic that it can reverse its RAN share trajectory, which had been trending downward over an extended period until recently. During its November 2025 CMD, the company outlined plans to stabilize its RAN business in the near term and position itself for long-term growth. As we have highlighted in our quarterly RAN coverage, the market is becoming increasingly concentrated and polarized, and vendors must determine how best to maximize their chances of winning while navigating the inherent trade-offs (the top five suppliers accounted for 96% of the 1Q25-3Q25 RAN market).

Rather than chasing volume in markets that are open to all suppliers, Nokia plans to remain disciplined and focus on areas where it can differentiate and unlock value—particularly through software/faster innovation cycles via its recently announced partnership with NVIDIA. The company sees meaningful opportunities to capture incremental share in North America, Europe, India, and select APAC markets. And it is already off to a solid start— we estimate that Nokia’s 1Q25–3Q25 RAN revenue share outside North America improved slightly relative to 2024. Following this stabilization phase, Nokia is betting that its investments will pay off and that it will be well-positioned to lead with AI-native networks and 6G.

Source: Nokia

 

In other words, the objective is stability in the near term and growth over the long term. It is now up to Nokia and NVIDIA to execute.

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Spoiler alert: it is not hype. But before we answer the question definitively, let’s define T-Mobile’s “Edge Control” just recently announced October 20, 2025. At Dell’Oro Group, we would call it an MNO-provided Private Network (MPN) as shown.

MNO-provided 5G SA Mobile Private Network (MPN)

Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) nodes are distributed across enterprise campuses, housing the User Plane Function (UPF) of the 5G Core, as well as the servers for data storage and computing specific to the enterprise. The Control Plane, however, remains on the MNO’s property at a regional data center. This design is referred to as Private MEC. The illustration also shows Public MEC, which can be geographically dispersed MEC nodes to address use cases requiring low latency and broad geographic coverage beyond the limits of an enterprise campus.

Why compare to China? Well, Chinese MNOs have been using a similar network architecture since launching their 5G Standalone (SA) networks in 2020. By the end of 2024 the MNOs in China had implemented 55,000 MNO-provided Private Networks. Based on their success in China, we expect T-Mobile will achieve proportional success in the U.S. market.

In addition, the vendors supplying MEC infrastructure equipment and application solutions should enjoy similar success as reported in our Mobile Core Network (MCN) and MEC Report – 2Q25.

 

Dell'Oro - China MEC Market by MNO-provided Mobile Private Network

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After two consecutive years of declining telecom equipment investments, the pendulum is beginning to shift. Preliminary findings indicate that aggregate worldwide telecom equipment revenues across the six programs tracked by Dell’Oro Group—Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and Service Provider Router & Switch—increased by 4% year over year (Y/Y) in 1H25. The improved market conditions were driven by several factors, including easier year-over-year comparisons, inventory stabilization, and favorable currency movements.

Market conditions improved markedly outside of China, with revenues increasing 8% Y/Y in the first half. The recovery was broad-based across all telecom programs; however, it is worth noting that MCN, Optical Transport, and SP Router & Switch led the gains.

Global supplier rankings remained largely unchanged, though revenue shares shifted modestly as Huawei continued to gain ground, while Ericsson and Nokia saw slight declines compared with 2024 levels.

The short-term outlook has been revised slightly upward. The analyst team now expects global telecom equipment revenues across the six programs to grow 2% to 3% in 2025, compared with a flat outlook in the 2024 update.

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In our 2Q 2025 Mobile Core Network (MCN) and Multi-access Edge Computing Report (MEC), we estimated manufacturing revenues by 5G Core vendors at a 31 percent year-over-year growth rate. At the same time, we announced that 71 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) have commercially launched enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) services to consumers.

As an industry, we have been bemoaning the slow uptake of 5G SA networks by MNOs. After all, we are in the sixth year of the 5G SA era, and with over 700 MNOs in the world, it is surprising that more 5G SA networks have not launched.

So why the acceleration in the 5G SA core space despite only 10% of the MNOs having launched 5G SA?

First, let’s look at the MNOs that have launched 5G SA eMMB networks for consumers.

The 40 countries/territories, with at least one MNO, can provide service to over 55% of the world’s population. At the same time, only 14% of the world’s mobile subscribers had 5G SA services at the end of 2024 (per Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2025). The conclusion one can draw from this is a low penetration rate of 5G SA subscribers from the 71 MNOs offering 5G SA services. The Chinese MNOs have been very aggressive in building out 5G SA coverage, and China Mobile, as an example, has achieved 60% 5G SA subscriber penetration after their launch in 2020. China Mobile’s 5G SA penetration rate is the best-case scenario for a large Tier-1 MNO. But even so, they still have many subscribers who can migrate from 4G to 5G. As the existing 5G SA networks mature in coverage and new, lower-cost handsets become available, with attractive incentives by MNOs to upgrade to 5G SA handsets, subscriber growth is certainly driving demand for more capacity in the 5G Core.

In addition, many MNOs already offer 5G SA for enterprises and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), but have not yet opened the 5G SA network to consumers; however, they are expected to do so soon. They include Bharti Airtel in India, 3 in Ireland, Sunrise in Switzerland, and AT&T and Verizon in the US.

Other MNOs have announced plans to launch 5G SA, but without specific timelines, including Bouygues Telecom, O2 Telefónica, and SFR in France, Bharti Airtel in India, MTN in Nigeria and South Africa, Rakuten in Japan, and Vodacom in South Africa, which will drive future growth. As a result, we project the 5G MCN revenue will grow at a 6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029.

Other factors impacting growth include:
  • NR Reduced Capability (RedCap): RedCap-enabled IoT will bring more 5G devices to market at a lower cost point with better performance, like new 5G smartwatches expected to be introduced in the fall. AT&T has announced nationwide RedCap coverage, maybe in anticipation of a new 5G smartwatch by Apple. Rumors of 5G smartwatches with RedCap coming this fall and winter are rampant for all smartwatch suppliers. These new smartwatches will require more capacity for the 5G Core. Even if these rumors do not materialize in this upgrade cycle, AT&T can offer more 5G SA services to enterprises using new IoT devices with RedCap.
  • 5G MEC: One example of Public MEC is Telefónica Spain, which is in the process of implementing 17 MEC nodes, delivering a latency of 10 ms to MEC subscribers by the end of 2025. Private MEC nodes are numerous (on-premises) with over 55,000 in China. The China market penetration rate is approximately 25% of enterprises, and Chinese MNOs are planning to address the next 25% of enterprises over the next several years. Also, Dynamic network slicing is maturing, and MNOs, such as Orange in Europe, are promoting these capabilities in their 5G SA markets.
  • Voice over NR (VoNR): As 5G SA continues to mature, MNOs are beginning to leverage more of the capability that 5G SA offers, for example: VoNR with cloud-native IMS Core is bringing immersive calling experiences to the user, driving Voice Core and 5G Packet Core growth. MNOs such as AT&T and Boost Mobile in the US, O2 Telefónica in Germany, and 2degrees in New Zealand are in the process of upgrading their Voice Core networks to IMS Core cloud-native network functions.
  • Impact of AI: Theoretically, Agentic AI apps can be connected to the network 24/7, which could significantly impact network performance, driving the demand for more packet core and voice core capacity. Examples of agentic AI are emerging as mobile network operators (MNOs) begin offering premium versions of advanced AI search tools to their customers. For instance, Bell in Canada and SoftBank in Japan have partnered with Perplexity to attract new customers to their networks. Additionally, a growing number of existing customers are utilizing AI independently.
  • Public Cloud: Another trend we are monitoring is the re-emergence of the option to put the 5G Core workloads in a Public Cloud. Public Cloud vendors are returning to the market with better solutions than several years ago, when we were in the hype phase about moving 5G workloads to the Public Cloud. MNOs can now evaluate which is the best approach for their market, build a 5G Telco Cloud, use the Public Cloud, or go with a Hybrid Cloud strategy.

Increasing 5G subscriber growth, additional 5G SA buildouts, more devices via RedCap, better performance via MEC with dynamic network slicing attracting new customers, greater use of Agentic AI, and more use of the Public Cloud are behind the driving growth for 5G SA networks.